Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 4 · 7:20pm CT · Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC · NBC7:20pm CT
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (+100)
-155
CAR
Carolina Panthers · NFC South · 1-1 · Home
FPI -1.4 · rank -0.828 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-120)
+130
Bank of America Stadium at kickoff: 73°F, wind 18 mph, gusts 39 mph, 22% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
DET -3
CAR +3 (-120)
DET -3 (+100)
Model
DET -1.3
Edge 1.7 pts CAR
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
CAR +130 · DET -155
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • CAR rating -1.4, DET rating 2.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to CAR.
  • Predicted margin is DET by 1.3.
  • Edge is 1.7 points toward CAR.
  • Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

DET

FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ BUF 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. Wvs NO 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ IND 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Wvs WSH 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ CIN 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13

CAR

FPI -1.4 · rank -0.828 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ ATL 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs CHI 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs HOU 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ JAX 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. L@ BUF 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableJaelan Phillips · Carolina Panthers
  • QuestionableNick Scott · Carolina Panthers
  • QuestionableDevin Lloyd · Carolina Panthers
  • QuestionableJalen Coker · Carolina Panthers
  • Injured ReserveJonathon Brooks · Carolina Panthers
  • QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
  • Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.