Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Thu, Oct 8 · 7:15pm CT · AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX · Prime Video · Indoor7:15pm CT
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-110)
+170
DAL
Dallas Cowboys · NFC East · 1-1 · Home
FPI 3.1 · rank 4.043 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-110)
-205
AT&T Stadium is closed. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
DAL -3.5
DAL -3.5 (-110)
TB +3.5 (-110)
Model
DAL -6.5
Edge 3 pts DAL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
DAL
DAL -205 · TB +170
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • DAL rating 3.1, TB rating -1.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to DAL.
  • Predicted margin is DAL by 6.5.
  • Edge is 3 points toward DAL.
  • Edge 3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 4.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is DAL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

DAL

FPI 3.1 · rank 4.043 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs WSH 37-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ NYG 28-20 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs NO 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ ARI 34-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ SEA 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • DoubtfulMalik Hooker · Dallas Cowboys
  • QuestionableDeMarvion Overshown · Dallas Cowboys
  • OutCobie Durant · Dallas Cowboys
  • OutP.J. Locke · Dallas Cowboys
  • Injured ReserveMalik Davis · Dallas Cowboys
  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 4.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML