Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00pm CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL · FOX12:00pm CT
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals · AFC North · 2-0 · Away
FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA
-6 (-110)
-270
MIA
Miami Dolphins · AFC East · 0-2 · Home
FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA
+6 (-110)
+220
Hard Rock Stadium at kickoff: 75°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 8 mph, 68% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
CIN -6
MIA +6 (-110)
CIN -6 (-110)
CIN -6 (-110)
Model
CIN -7.3
Edge 1.3 pts CIN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
CIN
MIA +220 · CIN -270
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- MIA rating -8, CIN rating 1.7.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to MIA.
- Predicted margin is CIN by 7.3.
- Edge is 1.3 points toward CIN.
- Edge 1.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -9.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is CIN, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
CIN
- W@ HOU 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs TB 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ PHI 30-13 · Fri, Aug 28
- Wvs CHI 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs DET 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13
MIA
- L@ SF 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ LV 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs ATL 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs NYG 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ WSH 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14
Injuries
- QuestionableRobert Beal Jr. · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableRyan Miller · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJaylen Wright · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableChop Robinson · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJuJu Brents · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJonathan Allen · Cincinnati Bengals
- OutAndrei Iosivas · Cincinnati Bengals
- QuestionableB.J. Hill · Cincinnati Bengals
- Injured ReserveBrian Parker II · Cincinnati Bengals
- Injured ReserveJa'Sir Taylor · Cincinnati Bengals
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 1.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -9.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.