Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00pm CT · Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN · CBS12:00pm CT
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-110)
-185
TEN
Tennessee Titans · AFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-110)
+154
Nissan Stadium at kickoff: 55°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 15 mph, 6% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
HOU -3.5
TEN +3.5 (-110)
HOU -3.5 (-110)
Model
HOU -3.2
Edge 0.3 pts TEN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
HOU
TEN +154 · HOU -185
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • TEN rating -4.7, HOU rating 0.9.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to TEN.
  • Predicted margin is HOU by 3.2.
  • Edge is 0.3 points toward TEN.
  • Edge 0.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is HOU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

HOU

FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

TEN

FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs PHI 24-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs NYJ 23-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs CHI 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Wvs SEA 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
  5. W@ SF 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableCor'Dale Flott · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTony Pollard · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTyjae Spears · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableSolomon Thomas · Tennessee Titans
  • Injured ReserveMilo Eifler · Tennessee Titans
  • OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML