Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00pm CT · Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA · CBS12:00pm CT
IND
Indianapolis Colts · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+120
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-142
Acrisure Stadium at kickoff: 42°F, wind 8 mph, gusts 20 mph, 16% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
PIT -2.5
PIT -2.5 (-110)
IND +2.5 (-110)
Model
PIT -0.6
Edge 1.9 pts IND
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
PIT -142 · IND +120
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • PIT rating -2.8, IND rating -1.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to PIT.
  • Predicted margin is PIT by 0.6.
  • Edge is 1.9 points toward IND.
  • Edge 1.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

IND

FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ KC 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs BAL 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs DET 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Lvs ATL 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. T@ NE 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

PIT

FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ NE 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs ATL 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ BUF 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs NYJ 17-0 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. Wvs GB 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableJamel Dean · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJoey Porter Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableMichael Pittman Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJaylen Warren · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableRico Dowdle · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableAshton Dulin · Indianapolis Colts
  • QuestionableCharvarius Ward · Indianapolis Colts
  • OutAlec Pierce · Indianapolis Colts
  • Injured ReserveMicheal Clemons · Indianapolis Colts
  • Injured ReserveCarson Towt · Indianapolis Colts

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.