Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00pm CT · Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA · CBS12:00pm CT
LV
Las Vegas Raiders · AFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI -3 · rank -3.231 · No nflverse EPA
+8.5 (-110)
+310
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
-8.5 (-110)
-395
Gillette Stadium at kickoff: 42°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 21 mph, 29% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
NE -8.5
NE -8.5 (-110)
LV +8.5 (-110)
Model
NE -7.4
Edge 1.1 pts LV
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
NE
NE -395 · LV +310
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NE rating 2, LV rating -3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NE.
  • Predicted margin is NE by 7.4.
  • Edge is 1.1 points toward LV.
  • Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is NE, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

LV

FPI -3 · rank -3.231 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ LAC 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs MIA 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs SF 18-12 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ HOU 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs ARI 27-14 · Thu, Aug 13

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs PIT 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ SEA 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. L@ CLE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs PHI 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Tvs IND 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableTreydan Stukes · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableDarien Porter · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableNakobe Dean · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableBrock Bowers · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableFolorunso Fatukasi · Las Vegas Raiders

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML