Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 11 · 3:05pm CT · SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA · CBS3:05pm CT
DEN
Denver Broncos · AFC West · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+120
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers · AFC West · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-142
SoFi Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
LAC -2.5
LAC -2.5 (-110)
DEN +2.5 (-110)
Model
LAC -1.4
Edge 1.1 pts DEN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
LAC -142 · DEN +120
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • LAC rating -1.3, DEN rating -0.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to LAC.
  • Predicted margin is LAC by 1.4.
  • Edge is 1.1 points toward DEN.
  • Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

DEN

FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs JAX 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ KC 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Wvs MIN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs GB 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ ATL 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14

LAC

FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs LV 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs ARI 26-14 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs LAR 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs SF 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. W@ HOU 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • DoubtfulDalvin Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableElijah Molden · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableDerwin James Jr. · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableBrenen Thompson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableTuli Tuipulotu · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr. · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJonah Coleman · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableRJ Harvey · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJ.K. Dobbins · Denver Broncos
  • OutJonathon Cooper · Denver Broncos

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.