Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 11 · 3:25pm CT · Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI · FOX3:25pm CT
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-110)
+140
GB
Green Bay Packers · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 0.5 · rank 0.913 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-110)
-166
Lambeau Field at kickoff: 42°F, wind 12 mph, gusts 23 mph, 18% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
GB -3
GB -3 (-110)
CHI +3 (-110)
Model
GB -3.5
Edge 0.5 pts GB
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
GB
GB -166 · CHI +140
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • GB rating 0.5, CHI rating -0.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to GB.
  • Predicted margin is GB by 3.5.
  • Edge is 0.5 points toward GB.
  • Edge 0.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is GB, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CHI

FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

GB

FPI 0.5 · rank 0.913 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ NYJ 20-17 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ MIN 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs ARI 42-38 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ DEN 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. L@ PIT 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • OutAaron Banks · Green Bay Packers
  • OutWarren Brinson · Green Bay Packers
  • QuestionableJavon Hargrave · Green Bay Packers
  • OutJayden Reed · Green Bay Packers
  • OutZach Bako-Bewele · Green Bay Packers
  • Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
  • OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
  • OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML