Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 11 · 3:25pm CT · State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ · FOX · Indoor3:25pm CT
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
-8.5 (-110)
-395
ARI
Arizona Cardinals · NFC West · 1-1 · Home
FPI -5.1 · rank -2.419 · No nflverse EPA
+8.5 (-110)
+310
State Farm Stadium is closed. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
DET -8.5
ARI +8.5 (-110)
DET -8.5 (-110)
DET -8.5 (-110)
Model
DET -5
Edge 3.5 pts ARI
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
DET
ARI +310 · DET -395
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- ARI rating -5.1, DET rating 2.3.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to ARI.
- Predicted margin is DET by 5.
- Edge is 3.5 points toward ARI.
- Edge 3.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -7.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is DET, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
DET
- L@ BUF 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
- Wvs NO 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ IND 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs WSH 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ CIN 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13
ARI
- Lvs SEA 31-7 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ LAC 26-14 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ GB 42-38 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs DAL 34-13 · Sat, Aug 22
- W@ LV 27-14 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- QuestionableMax Melton · Arizona Cardinals
- QuestionableGarrett Williams · Arizona Cardinals
- QuestionableDadrion Taylor-Demerson · Arizona Cardinals
- QuestionableHjalte Froholdt · Arizona Cardinals
- QuestionableRoy Lopez · Arizona Cardinals
- QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
- Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 3.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -7.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.