Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 11 · 7:20pm CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA · NBC · Indoor7:20pm CT
BAL
Baltimore Ravens · AFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI 4.1 · rank 3.424 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-198
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+164
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is closed. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
BAL -4.5
ATL +4.5 (-110)
BAL -4.5 (-110)
BAL -4.5 (-110)
Model
BAL -6.9
Edge 2.4 pts BAL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BAL
ATL +164 · BAL -198
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- ATL rating -5.2, BAL rating 4.1.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to ATL.
- Predicted margin is BAL by 6.9.
- Edge is 2.4 points toward BAL.
- Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -9.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is BAL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
BAL
- Lvs NO 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ IND 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs WSH 41-3 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ MIN 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs PHI 24-7 · Sat, Aug 15
ATL
- Lvs CAR 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ PIT 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ MIA 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ IND 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
- Lvs DEN 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14
Injuries
- OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableChris Moore · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableRonnie Stanley · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableZion Young · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableJohn Simpson · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableMalaki Starks · Baltimore Ravens
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -9.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.