Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Mon, Oct 12 · 7:15pm CT · SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA · ESPN7:15pm CT
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Away
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-110)
+142
LAR
Los Angeles Rams · NFC West · 1-1 · Home
FPI 4.7 · rank 2.831 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-110)
-170
SoFi Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
LAR -3
LAR -3 (-110)
BUF +3 (-110)
Model
LAR -1.4
Edge 1.6 pts BUF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
LAR -170 · BUF +142
Total 53.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • LAR rating 4.7, BUF rating 5.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to LAR.
  • Predicted margin is LAR by 1.4.
  • Edge is 1.6 points toward BUF.
  • Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

BUF

FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs DET 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. W@ HOU 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs PIT 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ CLE 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CAR 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15

LAR

FPI 4.7 · rank 2.831 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs NYG 28-6 · Mon, Sep 21
  2. Lvs SF 27-7 · Thu, Sep 10
  3. W@ LAC 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs NO 34-0 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ KC 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableKamren Kinchens · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableNate Landman · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableJordan Whittington · Los Angeles Rams
  • Injured ReserveRonnie Rivers · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableColby Parkinson · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.