Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Thu, Oct 15 · 7:15pm CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO · Prime Video7:15pm CT
SEA
Seattle Seahawks · NFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-115)
-130
DEN
Denver Broncos · AFC West · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-105)
+110
Empower Field at kickoff: 82°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 9 mph, 3% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
SEA -1.5
DEN +1.5 (-105)
SEA -1.5 (-115)
Model
SEA -0.7
Edge 0.8 pts DEN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
DEN +110 · SEA -130
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • DEN rating -0.3, SEA rating 2.8.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to DEN.
  • Predicted margin is SEA by 0.7.
  • Edge is 0.8 points toward DEN.
  • Edge 0.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

SEA

FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ ARI 31-7 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs NE 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. T@ KC 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TEN 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
  5. Lvs DAL 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15

DEN

FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs JAX 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ KC 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Wvs MIN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs GB 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ ATL 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr. · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJonah Coleman · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableRJ Harvey · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJ.K. Dobbins · Denver Broncos
  • OutJonathon Cooper · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableTy Okada · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableErnest Jones IV · Seattle Seahawks
  • Injured ReserveAnthony Bradford · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableCooper Kupp · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableGeorge Holani · Seattle Seahawks

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.