Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 18 · 8:30am CT · Wembley Stadium · London · NFL Net · Neutral8:30am CT
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-122)
-108
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars · AFC South · 1-1
FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (+102)
-112
Wembley at kickoff: temp n/a, wind n/a.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
JAX -1.5
JAX -1.5 (+102)
HOU +1.5 (-122)
Model
JAX -1.7
Edge 0.2 pts JAX
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
JAX -112 · HOU -108
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • JAX rating 2.6, HOU rating 0.9.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Neutral site, so home field is 0.
  • Predicted margin is JAX by 1.7.
  • Edge is 0.2 points toward JAX.
  • Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.7; neutral site (no home field)). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

HOU

FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

JAX

FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DEN 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs TB 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs CAR 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ NO 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableLeQuint Allen Jr. · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableDaVon Hamilton · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableCole Van Lanen · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableRobert Hainsey · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJakobi Meyers · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.7; neutral site (no home field)). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.