Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00pm CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA · FOX · Indoor12:00pm CT
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-110)
-155
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-110)
+130
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is closed. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
CHI -3
ATL +3 (-110)
CHI -3 (-110)
Model
CHI -2.3
Edge 0.7 pts ATL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
CHI
ATL +130 · CHI -155
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • ATL rating -5.2, CHI rating -0.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to ATL.
  • Predicted margin is CHI by 2.3.
  • Edge is 0.7 points toward ATL.
  • Edge 0.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is CHI, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CHI

FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

ATL

FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CAR 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ PIT 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ MIA 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ IND 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs DEN 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
  • QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
  • OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
  • OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML