Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 18 · 3:25pm CT · Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV · CBS · Indoor3:25pm CT
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Away
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
-6.5 (-110)
-270
LV
Las Vegas Raiders · AFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI -3 · rank -3.231 · No nflverse EPA
+6.5 (-110)
+220
Allegiant Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
BUF -6.5
LV +6.5 (-110)
BUF -6.5 (-110)
Model
BUF -6.3
Edge 0.2 pts LV
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BUF
LV +220 · BUF -270
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • LV rating -3, BUF rating 5.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to LV.
  • Predicted margin is BUF by 6.3.
  • Edge is 0.2 points toward LV.
  • Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -8.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is BUF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

BUF

FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs DET 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. W@ HOU 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs PIT 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ CLE 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CAR 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15

LV

FPI -3 · rank -3.231 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ LAC 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs MIA 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs SF 18-12 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ HOU 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs ARI 27-14 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableTreydan Stukes · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableDarien Porter · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableNakobe Dean · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableBrock Bowers · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableFolorunso Fatukasi · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -8.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

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