Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 18 · 3:25pm CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO · CBS3:25pm CT
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers · AFC West · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+120
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-142
Arrowhead at kickoff: 53°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 7 mph, 5% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
KC -2.5
KC -2.5 (-110)
LAC +2.5 (-110)
LAC +2.5 (-110)
Model
KC -8.1
Edge 5.6 pts KC
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
KC
KC -142 · LAC +120
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- KC rating 4.5, LAC rating -1.3.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to KC.
- Predicted margin is KC by 8.1.
- Edge is 5.6 points toward KC.
- Edge 5.6 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is KC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
LAC
- Lvs LV 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs ARI 26-14 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs LAR 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
- Lvs SF 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
- W@ HOU 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13
KC
- Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
- Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
- L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
- Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
- QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
- QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
- Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
- OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs
- DoubtfulDalvin Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableElijah Molden · Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableDerwin James Jr. · Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableBrenen Thompson · Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableTuli Tuipulotu · Los Angeles Chargers
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.