Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Thu, Oct 22 · 7:15pm CT · Soldier Field · Chicago, IL · Prime Video7:15pm CT
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+102
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-122
Soldier Field at kickoff: 47°F, wind 10 mph, gusts 18 mph, 12% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
CHI -1.5
CHI -1.5 (-110)
NE +1.5 (-110)
NE +1.5 (-110)
Model
NE -0.2
Edge 1.7 pts NE
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
CHI -122 · NE +102
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- CHI rating -0.5, NE rating 2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to CHI.
- Predicted margin is NE by 0.2.
- Edge is 1.7 points toward NE.
- Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
NE
- Wvs PIT 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ SEA 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
- L@ CLE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
- Wvs PHI 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
- Tvs IND 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13
CHI
- Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
- OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
- OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
- Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
- OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
- QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
- QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
- QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.