Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00pm CT · Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN · CBS12:00pm CT
CLE
Cleveland Browns · AFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+114
TEN
Tennessee Titans · AFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-135
Nissan Stadium at kickoff: 55°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 15 mph, 6% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
TEN -2.5
TEN -2.5 (-110)
CLE +2.5 (-110)
Model
TEN -3.9
Edge 1.4 pts TEN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
TEN
TEN -135 · CLE +114
Total 40.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • TEN rating -4.7, CLE rating -6.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to TEN.
  • Predicted margin is TEN by 3.9.
  • Edge is 1.4 points toward TEN.
  • Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is TEN, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CLE

FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ TB 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ JAX 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs NE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs BUF 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ CHI 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

TEN

FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs PHI 24-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs NYJ 23-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs CHI 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Wvs SEA 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
  5. W@ SF 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableCor'Dale Flott · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTony Pollard · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTyjae Spears · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableSolomon Thomas · Tennessee Titans
  • Injured ReserveMilo Eifler · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTyson Campbell · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableQuincy Williams · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableTytus Howard · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableMason Graham · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableGrant Delpit · Cleveland Browns

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML