Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00pm CT · Reliant Stadium · Houston, TX · FOX · Indoor12:00pm CT
NYG
New York Giants · NFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI -6.6 · rank -4.993 · No nflverse EPA
+5.5 (-110)
+195
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
-5.5 (-110)
-238
ESPN marks this building indoor. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
HOU -5.5
HOU -5.5 (-110)
NYG +5.5 (-110)
NYG +5.5 (-110)
Model
HOU -9.9
Edge 4.4 pts HOU
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
HOU
HOU -238 · NYG +195
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- HOU rating 0.9, NYG rating -6.6.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to HOU.
- Predicted margin is HOU by 9.9.
- Edge is 4.4 points toward HOU.
- Edge 4.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is HOU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
NYG
- L@ LAR 28-6 · Mon, Sep 21
- Wvs DAL 28-20 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ NYJ 23-6 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ MIA 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
- Lvs MIN 13-10 · Sat, Aug 15
HOU
- Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
- Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
- QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
- QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
- QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
- QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans
- QuestionableAndrew Thomas · New York Giants
- QuestionableDeonte Banks · New York Giants
- QuestionableTyler Nubin · New York Giants
- QuestionableBrian Burns · New York Giants
- QuestionableShelby Harris · New York Giants
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 4.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.