Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00pm CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA · FOX · Indoor12:00pm CT
SF
San Francisco 49ers · NFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI 7.3 · rank 6.041 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-230
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+190
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is closed. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
SF -4.5
ATL +4.5 (-110)
SF -4.5 (-110)
SF -4.5 (-110)
Model
SF -10.1
Edge 5.6 pts SF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
SF
ATL +190 · SF -230
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- ATL rating -5.2, SF rating 7.3.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to ATL.
- Predicted margin is SF by 10.1.
- Edge is 5.6 points toward SF.
- Edge 5.6 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -12.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is SF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
SF
- Wvs MIA 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs LAR 27-7 · Thu, Sep 10
- W@ LV 18-12 · Thu, Aug 27
- W@ LAC 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
- Lvs TEN 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13
ATL
- Lvs CAR 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ PIT 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ MIA 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ IND 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
- Lvs DEN 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14
Injuries
- OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveC.J. West · San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableMike Evans · San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableRomello Height · San Francisco 49ers
- DoubtfulJames Thompson Jr. · San Francisco 49ers
- OutDemarcus Robinson · San Francisco 49ers
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.