Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 25 · 3:25pm CT · Ford Field · Detroit, MI · FOX · Indoor3:25pm CT
GB
Green Bay Packers · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI 0.5 · rank 0.913 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+120
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-142
Ford Field is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
DET -2.5
DET -2.5 (-110)
GB +2.5 (-110)
GB +2.5 (-110)
Model
DET -4.2
Edge 1.7 pts DET
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
DET
DET -142 · GB +120
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- DET rating 2.3, GB rating 0.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to DET.
- Predicted margin is DET by 4.2.
- Edge is 1.7 points toward DET.
- Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is DET, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
GB
- W@ NYJ 20-17 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ MIN 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs ARI 42-38 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ DEN 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
- L@ PIT 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13
DET
- L@ BUF 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
- Wvs NO 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ IND 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs WSH 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ CIN 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
- Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions
- OutAaron Banks · Green Bay Packers
- OutWarren Brinson · Green Bay Packers
- QuestionableJavon Hargrave · Green Bay Packers
- OutJayden Reed · Green Bay Packers
- OutZach Bako-Bewele · Green Bay Packers
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.