Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 25 · 7:20pm CT · Lumen Field · Seattle, WA · NBC7:20pm CT
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-110)
+142
SEA
Seattle Seahawks · NFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-110)
-170
Lumen Field at kickoff: 62°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 19 mph, 18% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
SEA -3
SEA -3 (-110)
KC +3 (-110)
Model
SEA -0.8
Edge 2.2 pts KC
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
SEA -170 · KC +142
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • SEA rating 2.8, KC rating 4.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to SEA.
  • Predicted margin is SEA by 0.8.
  • Edge is 2.2 points toward KC.
  • Edge 2.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

KC

FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

SEA

FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ ARI 31-7 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs NE 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. T@ KC 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TEN 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
  5. Lvs DAL 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableTy Okada · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableErnest Jones IV · Seattle Seahawks
  • Injured ReserveAnthony Bradford · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableCooper Kupp · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableGeorge Holani · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
  • OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.