Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Nov 1 · 12:00pm CT · Ford Field · Detroit, MI · FOX · Indoor12:00pm CT
MIN
Minnesota Vikings · NFC North · 2-0 · Away
FPI 1.5 · rank -1.31 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+180
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-218
Ford Field is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
DET -4.5
DET -4.5 (-110)
MIN +4.5 (-110)
MIN +4.5 (-110)
Model
DET -3.3
Edge 1.2 pts MIN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
DET
DET -218 · MIN +180
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- DET rating 2.3, MIN rating 1.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to DET.
- Predicted margin is DET by 3.3.
- Edge is 1.2 points toward MIN.
- Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is DET, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
MIN
- W@ CHI 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs GB 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ DEN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs BAL 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
- W@ NYG 13-10 · Sat, Aug 15
DET
- L@ BUF 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
- Wvs NO 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ IND 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs WSH 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ CIN 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
- Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableDeeJay Dallas · Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableJalen Redmond · Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableNick Samac · Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableBrian O'Neill · Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableJake Golday · Minnesota Vikings
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.