Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Mon, Nov 2 · 7:15pm CT · Lumen Field · Seattle, WA · ESPN7:15pm CT
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+185
SEA
Seattle Seahawks · NFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-225
Lumen Field at kickoff: 62°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 19 mph, 18% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
SEA -4.5
SEA -4.5 (-110)
CHI +4.5 (-110)
Model
SEA -5.7
Edge 1.2 pts SEA
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
SEA
SEA -225 · CHI +185
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • SEA rating 2.8, CHI rating -0.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to SEA.
  • Predicted margin is SEA by 5.7.
  • Edge is 1.2 points toward SEA.
  • Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is SEA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CHI

FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

SEA

FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ ARI 31-7 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs NE 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. T@ KC 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TEN 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
  5. Lvs DAL 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableTy Okada · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableErnest Jones IV · Seattle Seahawks
  • Injured ReserveAnthony Bradford · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableCooper Kupp · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableGeorge Holani · Seattle Seahawks
  • Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
  • OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
  • OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML