Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Thu, Nov 5 · 7:15pm CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD · Prime Video7:15pm CT
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars · AFC South · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+170
BAL
Baltimore Ravens · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 4.1 · rank 3.424 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-205
M&T Bank Stadium at kickoff: 50°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 24 mph, 14% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
BAL -4.5
BAL -4.5 (-110)
JAX +4.5 (-110)
Model
BAL -3.9
Edge 0.6 pts JAX
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BAL
BAL -205 · JAX +170
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • BAL rating 4.1, JAX rating 2.6.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to BAL.
  • Predicted margin is BAL by 3.9.
  • Edge is 0.6 points toward JAX.
  • Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is BAL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

JAX

FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DEN 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs TB 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs CAR 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ NO 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

BAL

FPI 4.1 · rank 3.424 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs NO 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ IND 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs WSH 41-3 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ MIN 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs PHI 24-7 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableChris Moore · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableRonnie Stanley · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableZion Young · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableJohn Simpson · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableMalaki Starks · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableLeQuint Allen Jr. · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableDaVon Hamilton · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableCole Van Lanen · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableRobert Hainsey · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJakobi Meyers · Jacksonville Jaguars

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML