Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 8 · 12:00pm CT · Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA · CBS · Indoor12:00pm CT
CLE
Cleveland Browns · AFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-105)
+160
NO
New Orleans Saints · NFC South · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-115)
-192
Caesars Superdome is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
NO -3.5
NO -3.5 (-115)
CLE +3.5 (-105)
Model
NO -8
Edge 4.6 pts NO
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
NO
NO -192 · CLE +160
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NO rating -0.6, CLE rating -6.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NO.
  • Predicted margin is NO by 8.1.
  • Edge is 4.6 points toward NO.
  • Edge 4.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is NO, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CLE

FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ TB 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ JAX 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs NE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs BUF 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ CHI 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

NO

FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ BAL 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ DET 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ DAL 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ LAR 34-0 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs JAX 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableChristen Miller · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableChase Young · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableJonas Sanker · New Orleans Saints
  • Injured ReserveKelvin Banks Jr. · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableNathan Shepherd · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableTyson Campbell · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableQuincy Williams · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableTytus Howard · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableMason Graham · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableGrant Delpit · Cleveland Browns

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 4.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML