Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 8 · 12:00pm CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO · CBS12:00pm CT
NYJ
New York Jets · AFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI -3.3 · rank -2.733 · No nflverse EPA
+9.5 (-110)
+340
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
-9.5 (-110)
-395
Arrowhead at kickoff: 53°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 7 mph, 5% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
KC -9.5
KC -9.5 (-110)
NYJ +9.5 (-110)
Model
KC -10.1
Edge 0.6 pts KC
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
KC
KC -395 · NYJ +340
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • KC rating 4.5, NYJ rating -3.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to KC.
  • Predicted margin is KC by 10.1.
  • Edge is 0.6 points toward KC.
  • Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is KC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

NYJ

FPI -3.3 · rank -2.733 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs GB 20-17 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ TEN 23-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs NYG 23-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ PIT 17-0 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. Lvs TB 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

KC

FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
  • OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableKene Nwangwu · New York Jets
  • QuestionableMinkah Fitzpatrick · New York Jets
  • QuestionableJoseph Ossai · New York Jets
  • Injured ReserveArian Smith · New York Jets
  • Injured ReserveDavid Onyemata · New York Jets

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML