Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 8 · 3:05pm CT · SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA · CBS3:05pm CT
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+114
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers · AFC West · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-135
SoFi Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
LAC -2.5
LAC -2.5 (-110)
HOU +2.5 (-110)
Model
LAC -0.2
Edge 2.3 pts HOU
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
LAC -135 · HOU +114
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • LAC rating -1.3, HOU rating 0.9.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to LAC.
  • Predicted margin is LAC by 0.2.
  • Edge is 2.3 points toward HOU.
  • Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

HOU

FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

LAC

FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs LV 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs ARI 26-14 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs LAR 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs SF 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. W@ HOU 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • DoubtfulDalvin Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableElijah Molden · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableDerwin James Jr. · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableBrenen Thompson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableTuli Tuipulotu · Los Angeles Chargers
  • OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.