Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 8 · 3:05pm CT · Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA · CBS3:05pm CT
LV
Las Vegas Raiders · AFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI -3 · rank -3.231 · No nflverse EPA
+8.5 (-110)
+330
SF
San Francisco 49ers · NFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 7.3 · rank 6.041 · No nflverse EPA
-8.5 (-110)
-425
Levi's Stadium at kickoff: 86°F, wind 10 mph, gusts 10 mph, 3% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
SF -8.5
SF -8.5 (-110)
LV +8.5 (-110)
Model
SF -12.7
Edge 4.2 pts SF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
SF
SF -425 · LV +330
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • SF rating 7.3, LV rating -3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to SF.
  • Predicted margin is SF by 12.7.
  • Edge is 4.2 points toward SF.
  • Edge 4.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 10.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is SF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

LV

FPI -3 · rank -3.231 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ LAC 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs MIA 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs SF 18-12 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ HOU 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs ARI 27-14 · Thu, Aug 13

SF

FPI 7.3 · rank 6.041 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs MIA 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs LAR 27-7 · Thu, Sep 10
  3. W@ LV 18-12 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ LAC 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs TEN 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveC.J. West · San Francisco 49ers
  • QuestionableMike Evans · San Francisco 49ers
  • QuestionableRomello Height · San Francisco 49ers
  • DoubtfulJames Thompson Jr. · San Francisco 49ers
  • OutDemarcus Robinson · San Francisco 49ers
  • QuestionableTreydan Stukes · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableDarien Porter · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableNakobe Dean · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableBrock Bowers · Las Vegas Raiders
  • QuestionableFolorunso Fatukasi · Las Vegas Raiders

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 4.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 10.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

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