Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 8 · 7:20pm CT · Soldier Field · Chicago, IL · NBC7:20pm CT
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-110)
+164
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-110)
-198
Soldier Field at kickoff: 47°F, wind 10 mph, gusts 18 mph, 12% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
CHI -3.5
CHI -3.5 (-110)
TB +3.5 (-110)
Model
CHI -2.9
Edge 0.6 pts TB
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
CHI
CHI -198 · TB +164
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • CHI rating -0.5, TB rating -1.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to CHI.
  • Predicted margin is CHI by 2.9.
  • Edge is 0.6 points toward TB.
  • Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is CHI, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

CHI

FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
  • OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
  • OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML