Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Mon, Nov 9 · 7:15pm CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN · ESPN · Indoor7:15pm CT
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Away
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-110)
-175
MIN
Minnesota Vikings · NFC North · 2-0 · Home
FPI 1.5 · rank -1.31 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-110)
+145
U.S. Bank Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
BUF -3
MIN +3 (-110)
BUF -3 (-110)
Model
BUF -1.8
Edge 1.2 pts MIN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
MIN +145 · BUF -175
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • MIN rating 1.5, BUF rating 5.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to MIN.
  • Predicted margin is BUF by 1.8.
  • Edge is 1.2 points toward MIN.
  • Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

BUF

FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs DET 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. W@ HOU 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs PIT 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ CLE 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CAR 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15

MIN

FPI 1.5 · rank -1.31 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ CHI 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs GB 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ DEN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs BAL 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYG 13-10 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableDeeJay Dallas · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableJalen Redmond · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableNick Samac · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableBrian O'Neill · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableJake Golday · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.