Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
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Sun, Nov 15 · 8:30am CT · FC Bayern Munich Stadium · Munich · FOX · Neutral8:30am CT
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-108)
+105
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-112)
-125
No stadium coordinates on file, so weather stays off this card. It is not in the number either way.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
DET -1.5
DET -1.5 (-112)
NE +1.5 (-108)
Model
DET -0.3
Edge 1.2 pts NE
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
DET -125 · NE +105
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • DET rating 2.3, NE rating 2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Neutral site, so home field is 0.
  • Predicted margin is DET by 0.3.
  • Edge is 1.2 points toward NE.
  • Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.3; neutral site (no home field)). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs PIT 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ SEA 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. L@ CLE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs PHI 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Tvs IND 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

DET

FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ BUF 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. Wvs NO 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ IND 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Wvs WSH 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ CIN 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
  • Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions
  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.3; neutral site (no home field)). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.