Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 15 · 12:00pm CT · Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA · FOX · Indoor12:00pm CT
CAR
Carolina Panthers · NFC South · 1-1 · Away
FPI -1.4 · rank -0.828 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-115)
+100
NO
New Orleans Saints · NFC South · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-105)
-120
Caesars Superdome is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
NO -1.5
NO -1.5 (-105)
CAR +1.5 (-115)
Model
NO -3.2
Edge 1.7 pts NO
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
NO
NO -120 · CAR +100
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NO rating -0.6, CAR rating -1.4.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NO.
  • Predicted margin is NO by 3.2.
  • Edge is 1.7 points toward NO.
  • Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is NO, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CAR

FPI -1.4 · rank -0.828 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ ATL 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs CHI 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs HOU 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ JAX 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. L@ BUF 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15

NO

FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ BAL 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ DET 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ DAL 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ LAR 34-0 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs JAX 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableChristen Miller · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableChase Young · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableJonas Sanker · New Orleans Saints
  • Injured ReserveKelvin Banks Jr. · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableNathan Shepherd · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableJaelan Phillips · Carolina Panthers
  • QuestionableNick Scott · Carolina Panthers
  • QuestionableDevin Lloyd · Carolina Panthers
  • QuestionableJalen Coker · Carolina Panthers
  • Injured ReserveJonathon Brooks · Carolina Panthers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML