Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Nov 15 · 12:00pm CT · Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH · FOX12:00pm CT
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-205
CLE
Cleveland Browns · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+170
Huntington Bank Field at kickoff: 46°F, wind 19 mph, gusts 25 mph, 16% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
HOU -4.5
CLE +4.5 (-110)
HOU -4.5 (-110)
HOU -4.5 (-110)
Model
HOU -4.7
Edge 0.2 pts HOU
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
HOU
CLE +170 · HOU -205
Total 38.5 — no O/U pick
Total 38.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- CLE rating -6.2, HOU rating 0.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to CLE.
- Predicted margin is HOU by 4.7.
- Edge is 0.2 points toward HOU.
- Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -7.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is HOU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
HOU
- Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
- Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13
CLE
- W@ TB 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ JAX 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs NE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
- Lvs BUF 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ CHI 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableTyson Campbell · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableQuincy Williams · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableTytus Howard · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableMason Graham · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableGrant Delpit · Cleveland Browns
- OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
- QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
- QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
- QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
- QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -7.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.