Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Nov 15 · 12:00pm CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA · CBS · Indoor12:00pm CT
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-205
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+170
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is closed. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
KC -4.5
ATL +4.5 (-110)
KC -4.5 (-110)
KC -4.5 (-110)
Model
KC -7.3
Edge 2.8 pts KC
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
KC
ATL +170 · KC -205
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- ATL rating -5.2, KC rating 4.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to ATL.
- Predicted margin is KC by 7.3.
- Edge is 2.8 points toward KC.
- Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -9.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is KC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
KC
- Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
- Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
- L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
- Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15
ATL
- Lvs CAR 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ PIT 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ MIA 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ IND 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
- Lvs DEN 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14
Injuries
- OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
- QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
- QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
- Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
- OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -9.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.