Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Nov 15 · 12:00pm CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN · CBS · Indoor12:00pm CT
MIA
Miami Dolphins · AFC East · 0-2 · Away
FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA
+6.5 (-110)
+245
IND
Indianapolis Colts · AFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA
-6.5 (-110)
-305
Lucas Oil Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
IND -6.5
IND -6.5 (-110)
MIA +6.5 (-110)
MIA +6.5 (-110)
Model
IND -9.4
Edge 2.9 pts IND
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
IND
IND -305 · MIA +245
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- IND rating -1.1, MIA rating -8.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to IND.
- Predicted margin is IND by 9.4.
- Edge is 2.9 points toward IND.
- Edge 2.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is IND, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
MIA
- L@ SF 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ LV 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs ATL 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs NYG 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ WSH 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14
IND
- L@ KC 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs BAL 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs DET 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
- Lvs ATL 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
- T@ NE 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- QuestionableAshton Dulin · Indianapolis Colts
- QuestionableCharvarius Ward · Indianapolis Colts
- OutAlec Pierce · Indianapolis Colts
- Injured ReserveMicheal Clemons · Indianapolis Colts
- Injured ReserveCarson Towt · Indianapolis Colts
- QuestionableRobert Beal Jr. · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableRyan Miller · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJaylen Wright · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableChop Robinson · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJuJu Brents · Miami Dolphins
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 2.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.