Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Thu, Nov 19 · 7:15pm CT · Reliant Stadium · Houston, TX · Prime Video · Indoor7:15pm CT
IND
Indianapolis Colts · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA
+5.5 (-110)
+195
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
-5.5 (-110)
-238
ESPN marks this building indoor. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
HOU -5.5
HOU -5.5 (-110)
IND +5.5 (-110)
IND +5.5 (-110)
Model
HOU -4.3
Edge 1.2 pts IND
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
HOU
HOU -238 · IND +195
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- HOU rating 0.9, IND rating -1.1.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to HOU.
- Predicted margin is HOU by 4.3.
- Edge is 1.2 points toward IND.
- Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is HOU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
IND
- L@ KC 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs BAL 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs DET 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
- Lvs ATL 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
- T@ NE 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13
HOU
- Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
- Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
- QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
- QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
- QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
- QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans
- QuestionableAshton Dulin · Indianapolis Colts
- QuestionableCharvarius Ward · Indianapolis Colts
- OutAlec Pierce · Indianapolis Colts
- Injured ReserveMicheal Clemons · Indianapolis Colts
- Injured ReserveCarson Towt · Indianapolis Colts
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.