Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 22 · 12:00pm CT · Ford Field · Detroit, MI · CBS · Indoor12:00pm CT
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+185
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-225
Ford Field is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
DET -4.5
DET -4.5 (-110)
TB +4.5 (-110)
Model
DET -5.8
Edge 1.3 pts DET
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
DET
DET -225 · TB +185
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • DET rating 2.3, TB rating -1.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to DET.
  • Predicted margin is DET by 5.8.
  • Edge is 1.3 points toward DET.
  • Edge 1.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is DET, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

DET

FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ BUF 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. Wvs NO 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ IND 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Wvs WSH 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ CIN 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
  • Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML