Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Thu, Nov 26 · 12:00pm CT · Ford Field · Detroit, MI · CBS · Indoor12:00pm CT
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-105)
+120
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-115)
-142
Ford Field is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
DET -2.5
DET -2.5 (-115)
CHI +2.5 (-105)
CHI +2.5 (-105)
Model
DET -5.3
Edge 2.8 pts DET
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
DET
DET -142 · CHI +120
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- DET rating 2.3, CHI rating -0.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to DET.
- Predicted margin is DET by 5.3.
- Edge is 2.8 points toward DET.
- Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is DET, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
CHI
- Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15
DET
- L@ BUF 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
- Wvs NO 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ IND 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs WSH 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ CIN 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
- Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions
- Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
- OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
- OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.