Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Thu, Nov 26 · 7:20pm CT · Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY · NBC7:20pm CT
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-105)
+124
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Home
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-115)
-148
Highmark Stadium at kickoff: 39°F, wind 12 mph, gusts 22 mph, 25% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
BUF -2.5
BUF -2.5 (-115)
KC +2.5 (-105)
Model
BUF -3.6
Edge 1.1 pts BUF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BUF
BUF -148 · KC +124
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • BUF rating 5.7, KC rating 4.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to BUF.
  • Predicted margin is BUF by 3.6.
  • Edge is 1.1 points toward BUF.
  • Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is BUF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

KC

FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

BUF

FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs DET 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. W@ HOU 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs PIT 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ CLE 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CAR 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
  • OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

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