Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Fri, Nov 27 · 2:00pm CT · Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA · Prime Video2:00pm CT
DEN
Denver Broncos · AFC West · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-122
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+102
Acrisure Stadium at kickoff: 42°F, wind 8 mph, gusts 20 mph, 16% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
DEN -1.5
PIT +1.5 (-110)
DEN -1.5 (-110)
Model
DEN -0.1
Edge 1.4 pts PIT
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
PIT +102 · DEN -122
Total 39.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • PIT rating -2.8, DEN rating -0.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to PIT.
  • Predicted margin is DEN by 0.1.
  • Edge is 1.4 points toward PIT.
  • Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

DEN

FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs JAX 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ KC 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Wvs MIN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs GB 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ ATL 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14

PIT

FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ NE 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs ATL 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ BUF 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs NYJ 17-0 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. Wvs GB 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableJamel Dean · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJoey Porter Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableMichael Pittman Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJaylen Warren · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableRico Dowdle · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr. · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJonah Coleman · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableRJ Harvey · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJ.K. Dobbins · Denver Broncos
  • OutJonathon Cooper · Denver Broncos

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.