Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00pm CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL · CBS12:00pm CT
NYJ
New York Jets · AFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI -3.3 · rank -2.733 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+105
MIA
Miami Dolphins · AFC East · 0-2 · Home
FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-125
Hard Rock Stadium at kickoff: 75°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 8 mph, 68% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
MIA -1.5
MIA -1.5 (-110)
NYJ +1.5 (-110)
Model
NYJ -2.4
Edge 3.9 pts NYJ
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
NYJ
MIA -125 · NYJ +105
Total 40.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • MIA rating -8, NYJ rating -3.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to MIA.
  • Predicted margin is NYJ by 2.4.
  • Edge is 3.9 points toward NYJ.
  • Edge 3.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is NYJ, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

NYJ

FPI -3.3 · rank -2.733 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs GB 20-17 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ TEN 23-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs NYG 23-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ PIT 17-0 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. Lvs TB 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

MIA

FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ SF 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ LV 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs ATL 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs NYG 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ WSH 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableRobert Beal Jr. · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableRyan Miller · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableJaylen Wright · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableChop Robinson · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableJuJu Brents · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableKene Nwangwu · New York Jets
  • QuestionableMinkah Fitzpatrick · New York Jets
  • QuestionableJoseph Ossai · New York Jets
  • Injured ReserveArian Smith · New York Jets
  • Injured ReserveDavid Onyemata · New York Jets

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 3.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML