Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Nov 29 · 7:20pm CT · SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA · NBC7:20pm CT
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+105
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers · AFC West · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-125
SoFi Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
LAC -1.5
LAC -1.5 (-110)
NE +1.5 (-110)
Model
NE -0.9
Edge 2.4 pts NE
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
LAC -125 · NE +105
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • LAC rating -1.3, NE rating 2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to LAC.
  • Predicted margin is NE by 0.9.
  • Edge is 2.4 points toward NE.
  • Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs PIT 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ SEA 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. L@ CLE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs PHI 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Tvs IND 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

LAC

FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs LV 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs ARI 26-14 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs LAR 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs SF 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. W@ HOU 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • DoubtfulDalvin Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableElijah Molden · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableDerwin James Jr. · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableBrenen Thompson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableTuli Tuipulotu · Los Angeles Chargers
  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.