Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Dec 6 · 12:00pm CT · Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA · FOX · Indoor12:00pm CT
GB
Green Bay Packers · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI 0.5 · rank 0.913 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-225
NO
New Orleans Saints · NFC South · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+185
Caesars Superdome is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
GB -4.5
NO +4.5 (-110)
GB -4.5 (-110)
Model
NO -1.3
Edge 5.8 pts NO
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
NO +185 · GB -225
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NO rating -0.6, GB rating 0.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NO.
  • Predicted margin is NO by 1.3.
  • Edge is 5.8 points toward NO.
  • Edge 5.8 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -1.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

GB

FPI 0.5 · rank 0.913 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ NYJ 20-17 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ MIN 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs ARI 42-38 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ DEN 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. L@ PIT 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13

NO

FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ BAL 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ DET 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ DAL 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ LAR 34-0 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs JAX 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableChristen Miller · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableChase Young · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableJonas Sanker · New Orleans Saints
  • Injured ReserveKelvin Banks Jr. · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableNathan Shepherd · New Orleans Saints
  • OutAaron Banks · Green Bay Packers
  • OutWarren Brinson · Green Bay Packers
  • QuestionableJavon Hargrave · Green Bay Packers
  • OutJayden Reed · Green Bay Packers
  • OutZach Bako-Bewele · Green Bay Packers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.

Parlay deskAdd ATS