Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Dec 6 · 12:00pm CT · Soldier Field · Chicago, IL · FOX12:00pm CT
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars · AFC South · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-115)
+130
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-105)
-155
Soldier Field at kickoff: 47°F, wind 10 mph, gusts 18 mph, 12% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
CHI -3
CHI -3 (-105)
JAX +3 (-115)
Model
JAX -0.8
Edge 3.8 pts JAX
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
CHI -155 · JAX +130
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • CHI rating -0.5, JAX rating 2.6.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to CHI.
  • Predicted margin is JAX by 0.8.
  • Edge is 3.8 points toward JAX.
  • Edge 3.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

JAX

FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DEN 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs TB 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs CAR 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ NO 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

CHI

FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
  • OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
  • OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableLeQuint Allen Jr. · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableDaVon Hamilton · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableCole Van Lanen · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableRobert Hainsey · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJakobi Meyers · Jacksonville Jaguars

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 3.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.