Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Dec 6 · 12:00pm CT · Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL · CBS12:00pm CT
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers · AFC West · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-135
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+114
Raymond James Stadium at kickoff: 80°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 7 mph, 47% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
LAC -2.5
TB +2.5 (-110)
LAC -2.5 (-110)
LAC -2.5 (-110)
Model
TB -2.6
Edge 5.1 pts TB
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
TB
TB +114 · LAC -135
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- TB rating -1.1, LAC rating -1.3.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to TB.
- Predicted margin is TB by 2.6.
- Edge is 5.1 points toward TB.
- Edge 5.1 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 0.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is TB, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
LAC
- Lvs LV 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs ARI 26-14 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs LAR 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
- Lvs SF 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
- W@ HOU 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13
TB
- Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
- Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
- W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14
Injuries
- QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- DoubtfulDalvin Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableElijah Molden · Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableDerwin James Jr. · Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableBrenen Thompson · Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableTuli Tuipulotu · Los Angeles Chargers
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.