Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Dec 6 · 3:25pm CT · Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA · CBS3:25pm CT
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Away
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-112)
+102
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-108)
-122
Gillette Stadium at kickoff: 42°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 21 mph, 29% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
NE -1.5
NE -1.5 (-108)
BUF +1.5 (-112)
Model
BUF -1.3
Edge 2.8 pts BUF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
NE -122 · BUF +102
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NE rating 2, BUF rating 5.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NE.
  • Predicted margin is BUF by 1.3.
  • Edge is 2.8 points toward BUF.
  • Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

BUF

FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs DET 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. W@ HOU 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs PIT 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ CLE 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CAR 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs PIT 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ SEA 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. L@ CLE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs PHI 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Tvs IND 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.