Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Mon, Dec 7 · 7:15pm CT · Lumen Field · Seattle, WA · ESPN7:15pm CT
DAL
Dallas Cowboys · NFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI 3.1 · rank 4.043 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+185
SEA
Seattle Seahawks · NFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-225
Lumen Field at kickoff: 62°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 19 mph, 18% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
SEA -4.5
SEA -4.5 (-110)
DAL +4.5 (-110)
DAL +4.5 (-110)
Model
SEA -2.1
Edge 2.4 pts DAL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
SEA
SEA -225 · DAL +185
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- SEA rating 2.8, DAL rating 3.1.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to SEA.
- Predicted margin is SEA by 2.1.
- Edge is 2.4 points toward DAL.
- Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -0.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is SEA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
DAL
- Wvs WSH 37-20 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ NYG 28-20 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs NO 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ ARI 34-13 · Sat, Aug 22
- W@ SEA 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15
SEA
- W@ ARI 31-7 · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs NE 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
- T@ KC 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
- L@ TEN 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
- Lvs DAL 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableTy Okada · Seattle Seahawks
- QuestionableErnest Jones IV · Seattle Seahawks
- Injured ReserveAnthony Bradford · Seattle Seahawks
- QuestionableCooper Kupp · Seattle Seahawks
- QuestionableGeorge Holani · Seattle Seahawks
- DoubtfulMalik Hooker · Dallas Cowboys
- QuestionableDeMarvion Overshown · Dallas Cowboys
- OutCobie Durant · Dallas Cowboys
- OutP.J. Locke · Dallas Cowboys
- Injured ReserveMalik Davis · Dallas Cowboys
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -0.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.