Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Thu, Dec 10 · 7:15pm CT · Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA · Prime Video7:15pm CT
MIN
Minnesota Vikings · NFC North · 2-0 · Away
FPI 1.5 · rank -1.31 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+180
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-218
Gillette Stadium at kickoff: 42°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 21 mph, 29% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
NE -4.5
NE -4.5 (-110)
MIN +4.5 (-110)
Model
NE -3
Edge 1.5 pts MIN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
NE
NE -218 · MIN +180
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NE rating 2, MIN rating 1.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NE.
  • Predicted margin is NE by 3.
  • Edge is 1.5 points toward MIN.
  • Edge 1.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is NE, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

MIN

FPI 1.5 · rank -1.31 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ CHI 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs GB 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ DEN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs BAL 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYG 13-10 · Sat, Aug 15

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs PIT 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ SEA 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. L@ CLE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs PHI 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Tvs IND 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableDeeJay Dallas · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableJalen Redmond · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableNick Samac · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableBrian O'Neill · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableJake Golday · Minnesota Vikings

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML