Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Dec 13 · 12:00pm CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL · CBS12:00pm CT
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
-5.5 (-110)
-250
MIA
Miami Dolphins · AFC East · 0-2 · Home
FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA
+5.5 (-110)
+205
Hard Rock Stadium at kickoff: 75°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 8 mph, 68% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
CHI -5.5
MIA +5.5 (-110)
CHI -5.5 (-110)
CHI -5.5 (-110)
Model
CHI -5.1
Edge 0.4 pts MIA
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
CHI
MIA +205 · CHI -250
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- MIA rating -8, CHI rating -0.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to MIA.
- Predicted margin is CHI by 5.1.
- Edge is 0.4 points toward MIA.
- Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -7.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is CHI, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
CHI
- Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15
MIA
- L@ SF 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ LV 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs ATL 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs NYG 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ WSH 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14
Injuries
- QuestionableRobert Beal Jr. · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableRyan Miller · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJaylen Wright · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableChop Robinson · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJuJu Brents · Miami Dolphins
- Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
- OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
- OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -7.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.